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CF

CF IndustriesA
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Strong 98% year-to-date ammonia-capacity utilization, $1.19 billion of Q2 adjusted EBITDA, constructive nitrogen supply-demand commentary into 2027, Blue Point progress, and the expected Yazoo City restart support a longer-term operating recovery thesis [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Blue Point construction may face schedule, cost, funding, or partner-execution issues [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Momentum
60
Value
70
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $113.00 · Bull $136.00 · Bear $98.00Analysis 2026-08-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $127.30
Why
Momentum60 · Δ7d -9.4
Value70 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +0.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Blue Point construction may face schedule, cost, funding, or partner-execution issues [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
  • • Natural-gas costs, weather, seasonality, tariffs, and agricultural demand can pressure margins and volumes [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
  • • The Q2 earnings and revenue miss, cyclical nitrogen demand, customer timing risk, natural-gas volatility, and execution and funding risks around Blue Point and Yazoo City argue against an immediate re-rating [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Q2 2026 earnings miss despite strong operations

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
60
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.4
Δ21d
-18.7
Value
70
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
-11.7
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 59.7 / Value 70.3 / Sentiment 52.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$136.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$113.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$98.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$18.26B
Beta
0.69
Shares Out
151.34M
P/E (TTM)
9.7
P/S (TTM)
1.86
P/FCF (TTM)
9.08
Rev YoY
+17.6%
EPS YoY
+99.6%
Gross Margin
+45.7%
Op Margin
+41.5%
Net Debt
$1.65B
Current Ratio
4.86
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data