B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CDW
CDWDNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that the post-earnings selloff overreacted to margin pressure even though Q1 showed broad-based end-market growth, AI/infra demand, lower debt, and continued capital return. Management's constant-currency outgrowth target versus US IT spend leaves room for a recovery if gross margin stabilizes.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.7.
What can break
Gross margin fell to 21.0% from 21.6%, with lower netted-down revenue contribution pressuring profitability [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Momentum
80
Value
61
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $122.00 · Bull $145.00 · Bear $95.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $158.89
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d +0.6
Value61 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment43 · Δ7d +8.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Gross margin fell to 21.0% from 21.6%, with lower netted-down revenue contribution pressuring profitability [#8-K-2026-05-06].
- • Q1 operating cash flow slipped to $274.8M from $287.2M as merchandise inventory increased on customer-driven stocking, raising execution and working-capital risk if demand normalizes [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
- • The bear case is that the market is signaling concern that AI-related infrastructure demand is lower quality for margin, with gross margin down 60 bps, non-GAAP operating margin down 50 bps, higher AI initiative spending, and inventory/work-capital demands rising before a clear earnings acceleration follows.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Q1 2026 print confirmed broad sales growth, but margin compression is the key post-earnings debate
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
80
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+27.8
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-3.8
Sentiment
43
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.7
Δ21d
-5.4
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 80.3 / Value 61.2 / Sentiment 42.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$122.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$16.91B
Beta
1.08
Shares Out
125.02M
P/E (TTM)
16.9
P/S (TTM)
0.79
P/FCF (TTM)
25.62
Rev YoY
+10.0%
EPS YoY
+5.2%
Gross Margin
+21.4%
Op Margin
+7.2%
Net Debt
$5.55B
Current Ratio
1.17
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data