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CDNL

Cardinal Infrastructure GroupD
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record Q2 revenue of $226.9 million, 64% organic growth, $866 million backlog, raised revenue guidance, and the Allied Paving acquisition support a strong growth and vertical-integration case [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -43.4.
What can break
2026 guidance excludes significant weather events and future acquisitions.
Momentum
1
Value
46
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $50.00 · Bear $23.00Analysis 2026-09-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $59.00
Why
Momentum1 · Δ7d +0.1
Value46 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment50 · Δ7d -43.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -43.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2026 guidance excludes significant weather events and future acquisitions.
  • • Allied Paving integration, cash funding, and stock issuance add execution and financing risk.
  • • The growth profile is accompanied by meaningful margin pressure: Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 12.4%, with management citing labor, rental, weather, and corporate-investment costs.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

Material insider open-market buying

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
1
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.7
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
50
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-43.4
Δ21d
-43.4
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 1.5 / Value 45.7 / Sentiment 50.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
22%
Probability
Target price
$50.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
43%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.86B
Beta
-
Shares Out
20.43M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
60.1
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-373.17
Rev YoY
+113.9%
EPS YoY
-52.3%
Gross Margin
+13.4%
Op Margin
+8.2%
Net Debt
$40.12M
Current Ratio
3.59
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data