B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CDNA
CareDxFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The constructive read is that Q1 confirmed strong transplant-testing demand, improved collections, and operating leverage, while management simultaneously raised 2026 guidance and advanced strategic portfolio actions. Delayed analyst reaction was thin but supportive, with BTIG raising its target to $28 from $26 on April 29, 2026 after the oncology diagnostics deal.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
CareDx had previously embedded an estimated Medicare LCD headwind in 2026 planning, so reimbursement remains a monitoring risk even after the guide raise.
Momentum
98
Value
58
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $25.20 · Bull $28.00 · Bear $18.50Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $54.14
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d -1.0
Value58 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d +0.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CareDx had previously embedded an estimated Medicare LCD headwind in 2026 planning, so reimbursement remains a monitoring risk even after the guide raise.
- • Q1 average revenue per test included about $14 million of prior-period revenue recognition, which clouds the durability of the apparent beat.
- • The cautious read is that Q1 average revenue per test was helped by about $14 million of prior-period revenue, so some of the quarter's strength may not repeat cleanly.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-29
Q1 earnings reset improved the near-term setup
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
98
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-1.8
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+8.2
Sentiment
0
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-2.6
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 97.7 / Value 58.3 / Sentiment 0.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$25.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.4B
Beta
2.51
Shares Out
51.73M
P/E (TTM)
24.6
P/S (TTM)
2.85
P/FCF (TTM)
27.98
Rev YoY
+52.2%
EPS YoY
-1412.4%
Gross Margin
+70.1%
Op Margin
-0.4%
Net Debt
-$151.01M
Current Ratio
4.58
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data