B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CCCC
C4 TherapeuticsCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Operationally, the story has improved since the prior baseline: MOMENTUM has started, the elranatamab combination trial has dosed its first patient, and Roche added a fresh collaboration with upfront cash and milestone optionality. For a company with a market cap near $286 million, those are real execution markers rather than hypothetical roadmap items.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +14.8.
What can break
As of May 8, 2026, no confirmed Q1 2026 earnings release or 10-Q was found in recent company IR postings or SEC recent filings, leaving an important cash-burn and quarterly-update gap.
Momentum
56
Value
41
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.10 · Bull $5.00 · Bear $1.70Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.33
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d -8.8
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +14.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +14.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • As of May 8, 2026, no confirmed Q1 2026 earnings release or 10-Q was found in recent company IR postings or SEC recent filings, leaving an important cash-burn and quarterly-update gap.
- • Small-cap biotech financing risk is reduced but not removed; runway guidance was previously tied to year-end 2025 cash and key milestones, and the market still needs refreshed quarterly burn data.
- • This scheduled post-earnings follow-up remains low conviction because as of May 8, 2026 no Q1 2026 earnings release or 10-Q was visible in the company’s recent IR releases or SEC recent filings, so earnings surprise, guidance revision, and analyst target-change evidence were unavailable [#IR-2026-05-08] [#SEC-2026-05-08].
Catalyst clock
2026-07-15
Mid-2026 additional cemsidomide Phase 1 analysis
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
56
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.8
Δ21d
-16.9
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.8
Δ21d
+20.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 56.4 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 59.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$3.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$524.7M
Beta
2.97
Shares Out
123.03M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.4
P/S (TTM)
6.53
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.87
Rev YoY
+2.8%
EPS YoY
-50.7%
Gross Margin
+78.7%
Op Margin
-288.3%
Net Debt
-$188.56M
Current Ratio
5.45
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data