B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$355.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CB
ChubbCNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Chubb keeps converting pricing discipline and mix into resilient underwriting results despite elevated catastrophe activity. The 2025 10-K showed net premiums written of $54.842 billion, up 6.6%, and a P&C combined ratio of 85.7% [#10-K-2026-02-27], while the completed share cancellation and ongoing dividend growth reinforce per-share compounding and balance-sheet confidence [#8-K-2026-03-11] [#PR-2026-02-26].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
Capital return remains supportive but incremental buyback or dividend news may have diminishing valuation impact because much of the story is already recognized.
Momentum
34
Value
56
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $332.00 · Bull $355.00 · Bear $295.00Analysis 2026-04-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $368.52
Why
Momentum34 · Δ7d +2.1
Value56 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +6.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capital return remains supportive but incremental buyback or dividend news may have diminishing valuation impact because much of the story is already recognized.
- • Catastrophe losses stay elevated or surprise higher, especially after 2025 catastrophe losses reached $2.921 billion in the 10-K [#10-K-2026-02-27].
- • The bear case is that upside is limited because the market already recognizes Chubb as a high-quality insurer, while catastrophe severity, any reserve slippage, or softer commercial pricing could cap multiple expansion.
Catalyst clock
2026-02-26
Dividend growth signal supports quality perception but is unlikely to drive a large rerating alone
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
34
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.1
Δ21d
-14.1
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
61
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.6
Δ21d
+5.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 33.6 / Value 55.7 / Sentiment 60.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$332.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$295.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$131.5B
Beta
0.50
Shares Out
385.8M
P/E (TTM)
13.2
P/S (TTM)
2.12
P/FCF (TTM)
10.48
Rev YoY
+7.0%
EPS YoY
-0.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+23.2%
Net Debt
$19.72B
Current Ratio
0.46
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data