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CB

ChubbB
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q3 core operating EPS beat, 84.1% combined ratio, record investment income and international growth support a positive revision from the prior neutral monitoring view [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20]. SEC exhibit.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Catastrophe losses rose to $705 million from $285 million year over year, making reported margins sensitive to event severity [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20].
Momentum
69
Value
55
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $374.00 · Bull $405.00 · Bear $330.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $372.61
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d -3.9
Value55 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment58 · Δ7d +15.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +15.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Catastrophe losses rose to $705 million from $285 million year over year, making reported margins sensitive to event severity [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20].
  • • Favorable prior-period development of $511 million supported Q3 underwriting results; its repeatability is uncertain [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20].
  • • Consolidated premium growth was only 1.9%, North America Commercial shrank 2.7%, catastrophe losses rose to $705 million from $285 million, and core operating income declined 2.2% despite per-share growth [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20].

Catalyst clock

2026-10-22

Q3 earnings beat meets mixed initial trading

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
69
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.9
Δ21d
+8.4
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+15.0
Δ21d
-3.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 69.3 / Value 54.9 / Sentiment 58.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$405.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$374.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$330.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$137B
Beta
0.50
Shares Out
385.8M
P/E (TTM)
13.2
P/S (TTM)
2.12
P/FCF (TTM)
10.48
Rev YoY
+7.0%
EPS YoY
-0.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+23.2%
Net Debt
$19.72B
Current Ratio
0.46
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data