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Pathward FinancialB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q4 EPS exceeded a reported $1.59 analyst estimate, and reiterated fiscal 2027 EPS guidance of $9.50–$10.00 offers upside if credit stabilizes and payments fees persist. The estimate is vendor-reported, not a company figure.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Fiscal 2027 EPS guidance assumes no additional rate changes, an 18%–22% effective tax rate and expected repurchases; outcomes could differ if these assumptions or credit performance change. Pathward investor presentation
Momentum
26
Value
63
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $82.00 · Bull $98.00 · Bear $60.00Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $97.50
Why
Momentum26 · Δ7d +3.5
Value63 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment58 · Δ7d +1.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Fiscal 2027 EPS guidance assumes no additional rate changes, an 18%–22% effective tax rate and expected repurchases; outcomes could differ if these assumptions or credit performance change. Pathward investor presentation
  • • Fiscal Q4 net interest income declined 8% year over year, partly reflecting the October 2025 credit-sponsorship portfolio sale; fee growth may not fully offset recurring interest-income pressure. Pathward earnings exhibit
  • • The earnings beat may be less durable than it appears: fiscal Q4 provision for credit losses was $10.3 million versus a $6.4 million reversal a year earlier, and nonperforming assets increased sequentially.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-30

Market digestion of earnings and reaffirmed guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
26
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.5
Δ21d
+11.5
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.6
Δ21d
-7.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 26.5 / Value 63.5 / Sentiment 57.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$98.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.61B
Beta
0.75
Shares Out
20.77M
P/E (TTM)
9.3
P/S (TTM)
1.99
P/FCF (TTM)
7.12
Rev YoY
-3.2%
EPS YoY
-24.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+25.6%
Net Debt
-$54.16M
Current Ratio
0.03
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data