B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CART
MaplebearCNasdaq / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source earnings materials support a still-constructive post-print read: double-digit GTV and revenue growth, faster ads growth, positive free cash flow, buybacks, and Q2 GTV guidance that trusted coverage described as largely above expectations.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
Buybacks support EPS and sentiment, but they also consume cash that could otherwise fund working capital, acquisitions, or platform investment [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Momentum
84
Value
57
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $43.00 · Bull $48.00 · Bear $33.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $58.04
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d -3.1
Value57 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment51 · Δ7d +9.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Buybacks support EPS and sentiment, but they also consume cash that could otherwise fund working capital, acquisitions, or platform investment [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
- • Gross profit as a percent of GTV fell year over year in Q1, with management attributing pressure in part to payments to publishers as Carrot Ads and off-platform partnerships scale.
- • The market's initial negative reaction suggests investors are discounting decelerating margin expansion, publisher-payment pressure on gross profit rate, heavier reinvestment, and the lack of a clear post-print analyst revision wave so far.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-07
Q2 proof-point on price parity, enterprise rollout, and ads growth
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
84
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.1
Δ21d
+22.7
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
51
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.3
Δ21d
+4.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 83.9 / Value 57.2 / Sentiment 50.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.31B
Beta
-
Shares Out
231.5M
P/E (TTM)
24.2
P/S (TTM)
3.18
P/FCF (TTM)
13.13
Rev YoY
+14.1%
EPS YoY
+8.1%
Gross Margin
+72.0%
Op Margin
+16.7%
Net Debt
-$823M
Current Ratio
2.28
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data