B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$73.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
CAKE
Cheesecake FactoryFNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Sustained same‑store sales recovery, operating‑leverage‑driven margin expansion, and positive analyst revisions push the stock toward the high end of the published range.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Execution failures on unit growth or menu initiatives
Momentum
97
Value
48
Sentiment
14
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $60.67 · Bull $73.50 · Bear $50.00Analysis 2026-02-19; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $94.80
Why
Momentum97 · Δ7d +1.3
Value48 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment14 · Δ7d +4.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution failures on unit growth or menu initiatives
- • Negative analyst revisions or consensus downgrades
- • Persistent traffic softness, recurring wage/commodity pressure, or an operational lapse compresses margins and drives targets toward the low end of the published range.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-20
Q4 / FY2026 earnings release
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
97
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
-0.1
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+2.0
Sentiment
14
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
+5.5
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 97.4 / Value 48.4 / Sentiment 14.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-19. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$60.67
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$50.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.43B
Beta
1.01
Shares Out
49.76M
P/E (TTM)
16.6
P/S (TTM)
0.73
P/FCF (TTM)
25.78
Rev YoY
+7.7%
EPS YoY
+23.8%
Gross Margin
+13.6%
Op Margin
+7.0%
Net Debt
$1.91B
Current Ratio
0.59
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data