B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BWLP
BW LPGCNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Near-term operating setup is better than the screen suggests: BW LPG entered Q1 2026 with 94% of available days fixed around US$54,000/day, reported Q4 2025 profit attributable to equity holders of US$104.2 million, and continued a 100% Shipping NPAT payout for Q4, while the March 31, 2026 filing also confirmed a roughly 50-vessel VLGC fleet and 22 LPG dual-fuel vessels [#PR-2026-03-03-Q4][#20F-2026-03-31].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
What can break
2026 drydocking and off-hire days can dilute otherwise strong charter fixing.
Momentum
88
Value
61
Sentiment
39
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $17.50 · Bull $22.50 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d -5.3
Value61 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment39 · Δ7d -3.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 drydocking and off-hire days can dilute otherwise strong charter fixing.
- • Geopolitical disruptions around the Middle East can either boost rates temporarily or redirect tonnage in ways that later hurt US Gulf pricing.
- • Forward visibility is still mostly freight-driven.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
VLGC rate volatility remains the main swing factor
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
88
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-5.3
Δ21d
-6.1
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
39
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.0
Δ21d
-3.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 87.5 / Value 60.6 / Sentiment 38.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$3.87B
Beta
1.06
Shares Out
151.81M
P/E (TTM)
11.5
P/S (TTM)
0.56
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
19.82
Rev YoY
-2.7%
EPS YoY
+256.7%
Gross Margin
+19.5%
Op Margin
+13.2%
Net Debt
$734.93M
Current Ratio
1.47
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data