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BWIN

Baldwin Insurance GroupB
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings operating picture is constructive: strong adjusted EBITDA and free-cash-flow growth, CAC momentum, margin expansion, and management's expectation that prior headwinds become tailwinds. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.5.
What can break
GAAP losses and non-cash or one-time charges complicate earnings-quality assessment.
Momentum
84
Value
38
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $31.44 · Bull $35.00 · Bear $24.50Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $32.22
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d -3.5
Value38 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +8.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • GAAP losses and non-cash or one-time charges complicate earnings-quality assessment.
  • • IAS headwinds include rate and exposure pressure, accounting changes, retention effects, and integration-related attrition. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-31]
  • • Reported organic growth was only 2%, IAS organic revenue declined 2%, and GAAP net loss was $56 million.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-04

SEC-confirmed Q2 earnings and cash-flow delivery

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
84
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.5
Δ21d
-10.8
Value
38
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.5
Δ21d
+4.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 83.5 / Value 38.2 / Sentiment 69.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$31.44
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.29B
Beta
1.33
Shares Out
96.84M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-89.1
P/S (TTM)
2.40
P/FCF (TTM)
58.69
Rev YoY
+30.1%
EPS YoY
+804.1%
Gross Margin
+19.5%
Op Margin
-2.6%
Net Debt
$1.41B
Current Ratio
1.07
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data