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BW

Babcock Wilcox EnterprisesF
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
$3.79+$0.54 (+16.62%)
At close · 2026-11-09
View Chart
Current thesis
Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA rose year over year, while bookings and backlog support a possible path toward the new 2027 adjusted EBITDA target. Needham raised its 2026 and 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimates despite cutting its target price.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.
What can break
Backlog can be canceled or altered, and the $16 billion pipeline is uncontracted; North Dakota permitting, labor availability and project execution remain risks. Company Q3 release
Momentum
3
Value
46
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.10 · Bull $5.50 · Bear $2.50Analysis 2026-11-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-11-09 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-11-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.25
Why
Momentum3 · Δ7d -0.0
Value46 · Δ7d -0.9
Sentiment47 · Δ7d +15.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Backlog can be canceled or altered, and the $16 billion pipeline is uncontracted; North Dakota permitting, labor availability and project execution remain risks. Company Q3 release
  • • Nine-month operating cash outflow was $130.3 million versus $65.9 million a year earlier; receivables and contract working capital absorbed cash. Company Q3 release
  • • The $0.61 reported EPS includes a large non-cash customer-warrant fair-value gain, so it should not be treated as an equivalent recurring earnings beat.

Catalyst clock

2027-03-31

Cash conversion after the Q3 revenue beat

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
3
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.3
Value
46
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
+0.7
Sentiment
47
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+15.3
Δ21d
+29.4
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 2.6 / Value 46.1 / Sentiment 46.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-11-10. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-11-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-11-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-11-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-11-09
Market Cap
$564.58M
Beta
1.55
Shares Out
148.97M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.4
P/S (TTM)
1.34
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-5.79
Rev YoY
+130.3%
EPS YoY
-111.7%
Gross Margin
+20.0%
Op Margin
+4.0%
Net Debt
$187.67M
Current Ratio
1.45
As of 2026-11-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data