B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BV
BrightViewBNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Land contract-book growth, improving customer-retention and salesforce metrics, continued investment, and reduced near-term refinancing pressure could support a recovery if BrightView converts recurring revenue growth into stable EBITDA and free cash flow [#IR-Q3-2026-08-05].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
What can break
Development Services revenue is guided to decline approximately 5% to 3% in fiscal 2026.
Momentum
21
Value
55
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $15.65 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.35
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d +4.0
Value55 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment64 · Δ7d -0.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Development Services revenue is guided to decline approximately 5% to 3% in fiscal 2026.
- • Margin compression and lower reported EBITDA despite modest revenue growth.
- • The Q3 print was weaker on profitability: net income fell 81.1%, adjusted EBITDA fell 15.1%, and adjusted EPS was below the packet's pre-print consensus context.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-07
Q3 earnings were revenue-stable but earnings-negative
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
21
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
+8.7
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
64
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-12.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 21.0 / Value 55.2 / Sentiment 63.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$980.63M
Beta
1.28
Shares Out
92.6M
P/E (TTM)
106.3
P/S (TTM)
0.46
P/FCF (TTM)
682.89
Rev YoY
+1.3%
EPS YoY
-119.8%
Gross Margin
+20.4%
Op Margin
+4.2%
Net Debt
$875.8M
Current Ratio
1.28
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data