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BTE

Baytex EnergyC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The strongest supported bull case remains that Baytex already converted Q1 outperformance into a guidance raise, higher three-year growth expectations, and a still-net-cash balance-sheet posture, which can keep the stock biased upward if 2H well additions and heavy-oil delivery stay on track.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.
What can break
Baytex's constructive May 7 update still depends on commodity-price support; a weaker oil tape could overwhelm company-specific delivery.
Momentum
69
Value
66
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.00 · Bull $4.80 · Bear $3.20Analysis 2026-06-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.53
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d +2.9
Value66 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +0.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Baytex's constructive May 7 update still depends on commodity-price support; a weaker oil tape could overwhelm company-specific delivery.
  • • Forward visibility is limited by thin primary-source depth beyond the May 7 company releases and by the absence of a reliable post-earnings analyst-revision packet in this evidence set.
  • • The bear case is that the May 7 reset may already capture the best near-term operating news, while Baytex remains highly exposed to commodity prices, execution on a heavier 2H program, and a still-thin evidence set with no trustworthy post-print analyst-revision packet in this run.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-07

Q1 outperformance reset 2026 production expectations

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
69
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.9
Δ21d
+12.0
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
-11.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 68.5 / Value 66.3 / Sentiment 53.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.19B
Beta
1.05
Shares Out
699.2M
P/E (TTM)
15.9
P/S (TTM)
1.11
P/FCF (TTM)
9.72
Rev YoY
+51.3%
EPS YoY
+23.0%
Gross Margin
+23.9%
Op Margin
+20.1%
Net Debt
-$609.24M
Current Ratio
2.82
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data