RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

BTDR

Bitdeer GroupC
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
BTDR has real operating momentum: Q4 2025 revenue jumped to $224.8M, cash was $149.4M, and March 2026 updates showed ~70 EH/s self-mining hash rate plus AI cloud ARR of about $43M, suggesting the company may be building a hybrid mining-plus-AI infrastructure story faster than many miners [#PR-2026-02-12][#PR-2026-04-15].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
AI cloud and colocation expansion are still emerging businesses with uncertain demand durability and execution risk [#20F-2025-04-21].
Momentum
15
Value
44
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $12.50 · Bull $18.50 · Bear $7.50Analysis 2026-04-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $21.77
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d +11.8
Value44 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment68 · Δ7d -20.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -20.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI cloud and colocation expansion are still emerging businesses with uncertain demand durability and execution risk [#20F-2025-04-21].
  • • Bitcoin price volatility can still hit mining profitability, demand and equity sentiment materially [#20F-2025-04-21].
  • • The thesis is still low-visibility because the AI business is early, infrastructure conversion milestones stretch through 2026+, and the 20-F makes clear results remain highly exposed to bitcoin price swings; recent financing also reinforces dilution/capital-intensity risk if monetization lags [#20F-2025-04-21][#PR-2026-02-20].

Catalyst clock

2026-05-15

Monthly operating update must confirm AI cloud run-rate durability

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
15
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.8
Δ21d
+13.2
Value
44
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+6.9
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-20.9
Δ21d
-33.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 15.2 / Value 44.3 / Sentiment 67.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.55B
Beta
2.33
Shares Out
271.78M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
29.3
P/S (TTM)
5.05
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-1.07
Rev YoY
+47.1%
EPS YoY
+15.4%
Gross Margin
+0.5%
Op Margin
-30.0%
Net Debt
$922.6M
Current Ratio
1.01
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data