B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BRZE
BrazeANasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The constructive case is that Braze has moved from a monitoring story toward a real re-acceleration setup: Q4 revenue grew 27.9% y/y, FY2026 free cash flow rose to $58.1 million from $19.6 million, non-GAAP operating income turned positive at $28.5 million for the year, and RPO reached $1.03 billion with 333 customers above $500,000 ARR. If the February 2026 GA launches for Agent Console and Operator convert into broader enterprise adoption, upside can extend beyond a single earnings beat.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Dollar-based net retention has declined from 117% to 111% to 109% over the last three fiscal years, signaling less expansion cushion if macro pressure persists. [#10-K-2026-03-25]
Momentum
94
Value
41
Sentiment
81
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $28.00 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $16.00Analysis 2026-04-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $37.30
Why
Momentum94 · Δ7d -1.9
Value41 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment81 · Δ7d +13.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Dollar-based net retention has declined from 117% to 111% to 109% over the last three fiscal years, signaling less expansion cushion if macro pressure persists. [#10-K-2026-03-25]
- • GAAP losses and stock-based compensation remain substantial, which can limit how much investors reward non-GAAP profitability alone. [#PR-2026-03-24]
- • The bearish case is that Braze still has weakening medium-term quality signals beneath the Q4 headline: dollar-based net retention was 109%, down from 111% a year earlier and well below 117% two years earlier; GAAP losses remain large; stock-based compensation was $144.9 million in FY2026; and the 10-K disclosed a material weakness in IT general controls that management expects to remediate during FY2027 but cannot guarantee.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
Imminent buyback/ASR can cushion the tape but is secondary to execution
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
94
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.9
Δ21d
+9.8
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
81
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.3
Δ21d
-2.6
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 93.5 / Value 41.4 / Sentiment 80.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.15B
Beta
1.08
Shares Out
112.63M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-23.0
P/S (TTM)
5.16
P/FCF (TTM)
60.20
Rev YoY
+30.2%
EPS YoY
-29.9%
Gross Margin
+66.1%
Op Margin
-16.4%
Net Debt
-$329.83M
Current Ratio
1.24
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data