B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BRBR
BellRing BrandsDNYSE / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q3 sales grew 4.2% to $570.4 million, and management reported healthy underlying brand demand. Inventory normalization and successful pricing or productivity actions could support a margin rebound.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
A third-party-supplied ingredient failed quality requirements; recovery of the associated $11.3 million charge was not included in the outlook. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04] SEC earnings exhibit
Momentum
11
Value
69
Sentiment
35
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.80 · Bull $11.50 · Bear $4.50Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.58
Why
Momentum11 · Δ7d +2.1
Value69 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment35 · Δ7d -2.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A third-party-supplied ingredient failed quality requirements; recovery of the associated $11.3 million charge was not included in the outlook. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04] SEC earnings exhibit
- • Forward visibility is limited until year-end results clarify inventory levels, margins and cash generation.
- • Q3 adjusted EBITDA fell to $78.3 million from $120.3 million, while adjusted gross margin contracted sharply.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-30
FY2026 results test the reduced profit outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
11
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.1
Δ21d
+5.3
Value
69
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
35
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.0
Δ21d
-34.4
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 11.1 / Value 69.3 / Sentiment 34.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$7.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$1.11B
Beta
0.64
Shares Out
116.28M
P/E (TTM)
14.2
P/S (TTM)
1.22
P/FCF (TTM)
11.06
Rev YoY
+4.2%
EPS YoY
+78.7%
Gross Margin
+27.3%
Op Margin
+12.7%
Net Debt
$1.02B
Current Ratio
2.25
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data