B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BMRN
BioMarin PharmaceuticalBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
VOXZOGO demand sustains the raised 2026 outlook, the hypochondroplasia application advances, and BioMarin integrates its expanded rare-disease portfolio while developing acquired ALE1. BioMarin confirmed Alesta's acquisition closed and that ALE1 is in Phase 1/2a testing.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26 · AMC.
What can break
ALE1 remains an early Phase 1/2a asset, so clinical, regulatory and acquisition-return risks are substantial. BioMarin acquisition announcement
Momentum
24
Value
64
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $59.00 · Bull $72.00 · Bear $39.00Analysis 2026-10-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-26 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $91.62
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d +0.3
Value64 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment58 · Δ7d +0.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • ALE1 remains an early Phase 1/2a asset, so clinical, regulatory and acquisition-return risks are substantial. BioMarin acquisition announcement
- • BioMarin discontinued BMN 401 after a pivotal trial missed one co-primary endpoint, illustrating pipeline attrition risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • Alesta's disclosed charges depress 2026 EPS, integration or development spending exceeds expectations, and VOXZOGO growth or regulatory progress disappoints.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-26 · AMC
Alesta charges and revised 2026 guidance
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
24
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-23.8
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
-19.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 24.1 / Value 63.5 / Sentiment 57.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$59.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$10.83B
Beta
0.26
Shares Out
193.57M
P/E (TTM)
22.1
P/S (TTM)
3.66
P/FCF (TTM)
13.70
Rev YoY
+20.4%
EPS YoY
-81.3%
Gross Margin
+73.9%
Op Margin
+18.5%
Net Debt
-$917.74M
Current Ratio
2.39
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data