B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BMBL
BumbleFNasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The product rebuild improves engagement and paying-user retention while modest ARPPU growth persists. Q2 revenue and adjusted EBITDA were at the high end of or above Bumble's own guidance, but this has not yet established a growth turn.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Continued paying-user losses could overwhelm modest ARPPU gains. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Momentum
100
Value
68
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.60 · Bull $4.00 · Bear $1.50Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.25
Why
Momentum100 · Δ7d +1.4
Value68 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Continued paying-user losses could overwhelm modest ARPPU gains. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
- • June debt of $451 million exceeded cash of $154 million; Q2 included a $169.3 million impairment charge. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
- • Q2 revenue fell 15.2% to $210.5 million, paying users fell 16.4%, and adjusted EBITDA declined to $72.9 million from $94.6 million.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-15
Q3 paying-user and margin test
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
100
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
+52.7
Value
68
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
0
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-55.1
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 99.9 / Value 68.3 / Sentiment 0.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$2.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$799.09M
Beta
1.96
Shares Out
133.63M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.0
P/S (TTM)
0.96
P/FCF (TTM)
5.51
Rev YoY
-15.2%
EPS YoY
-65.8%
Gross Margin
+70.9%
Op Margin
+27.9%
Net Debt
$423.65M
Current Ratio
1.59
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data