B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BLSH
BullishBNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source evidence supports a cautious positive setup: Q4 2025 adjusted revenue and EBITDA were records, March 2026 trading activity improved materially, and the next earnings print on May 14, 2026 could validate better quarter-on-quarter operating momentum.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
News driver: Hedge Funds Hike Bullish Oil Bets to May High as Iran War Flares.
What can break
Bullish remains exposed to digital-asset price volatility, trading volumes, spreads, and broader crypto market structure conditions.
Momentum
91
Value
40
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $42.00 · Bull $48.00 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-04-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $38.70
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d +11.8
Value40 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment76 · Δ7d -3.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • News driver: Hedge Funds Hike Bullish Oil Bets to May High as Iran War Flares.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Bullish remains exposed to digital-asset price volatility, trading volumes, spreads, and broader crypto market structure conditions.
- • Coverage is thin and the available packet peers are not close operating comparables, limiting confidence in cross-checking valuation and thesis durability.
- • Confidence stays low because Bullish still showed large GAAP net losses in Q4 2025, monthly metrics are preliminary, and near-term results remain heavily tied to crypto volumes, spreads, and sentiment rather than a fully proven recurring-revenue model.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-14
First-quarter 2026 results are scheduled for May 14, 2026
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
91
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.8
Δ21d
+83.2
Value
40
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.1
Δ21d
-16.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 91.3 / Value 39.6 / Sentiment 76.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.75B
Beta
-
Shares Out
150.3M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.9
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
63.17
Rev YoY
+65.8%
EPS YoY
-287.9%
Gross Margin
+79.6%
Op Margin
+18.1%
Net Debt
$72.21M
Current Ratio
23.52
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data