B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$74.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BLBD
Blue BirdBNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The May 6 quarter showed solid profitability, a guidance raise, and a visible second-half revenue bridge from the large electric-bus deposit; if the backlog converts cleanly and the Micro Bird integration adds scale without margin friction, Blue Bird can compound earnings faster than the market currently implies.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
What can break
A material non-cash pension settlement charge is expected in fiscal Q3 from the annuity transfer and plan termination, which can weaken reported EPS optics even though it is not a cash outflow [#8-K-2026-05-18].
Momentum
18
Value
69
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $66.50 · Bull $74.00 · Bear $54.00Analysis 2026-05-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $90.14
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d +6.6
Value69 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment69 · Δ7d -0.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A material non-cash pension settlement charge is expected in fiscal Q3 from the annuity transfer and plan termination, which can weaken reported EPS optics even though it is not a cash outflow [#8-K-2026-05-18].
- • The $42.8M electric-bus deferred-income balance still has to turn into produced and delivered units across fiscal Q3 and Q4; any slippage would push revenue recognition out.
- • The stock already sits close to the analyst median, and the packet does not show fresh target or estimate revisions; upside can stall if backlog conversion slips, if the pension settlement charge muddies reported earnings, or if guidance proves to be the peak of the growth re-rate.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Q2 FY2026 results beat-and-raise reset the near-term setup
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.6
Δ21d
+0.6
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-3.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 18.2 / Value 69.3 / Sentiment 68.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$66.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.02B
Beta
1.44
Shares Out
31.68M
P/E (TTM)
12.3
P/S (TTM)
1.02
P/FCF (TTM)
9.88
Rev YoY
+29.9%
EPS YoY
+371.0%
Gross Margin
+20.6%
Op Margin
+11.8%
Net Debt
-$132.71M
Current Ratio
1.64
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data