B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$76.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BLBD
Blue BirdANasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Strong fiscal Q3 volume and adjusted EBITDA, the raised fiscal-year profit outlook, and firm electric-bus orders support further earnings growth if deliveries and margins hold. The Ford program offers a longer-dated opportunity, subject to closing and execution [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Firm electric-bus orders may convert later than expected or at lower margins [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Momentum
40
Value
69
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $60.00 · Bull $76.00 · Bear $40.00Analysis 2026-09-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $90.14
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d -3.2
Value69 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -0.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Firm electric-bus orders may convert later than expected or at lower margins [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • Fiscal Q3 GAAP net income of $185.3 million substantially exceeded adjusted net income of $45.0 million; investors should not extrapolate the GAAP figure without reconciling nonrecurring items [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • The share-price decline despite strong reported results suggests expectations or forward concerns may exceed the published guidance improvement.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-30
Fiscal 2026 results test raised profit guidance
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
40
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.2
Δ21d
-4.2
Value
69
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-9.9
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 40.2 / Value 69.2 / Sentiment 57.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-25. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.81B
Beta
1.44
Shares Out
31.35M
P/E (TTM)
12.3
P/S (TTM)
1.02
P/FCF (TTM)
9.88
Rev YoY
+29.9%
EPS YoY
+371.0%
Gross Margin
+20.6%
Op Margin
+11.8%
Net Debt
-$132.71M
Current Ratio
1.64
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data