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BKNG

BookingB
Nasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 room nights grew 5%, gross bookings 9%, revenue 8%, and adjusted EBITDA 9%; sustained volume and monetization alongside realized savings could support upside. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03 · AMC.
What can break
Marketing expense rose as a share of gross bookings in Q2 while direct room-night mix was roughly unchanged, leaving customer-acquisition efficiency to prove out. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Momentum
18
Value
59
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $158.00 · Bull $205.00 · Bear $115.00Analysis 2026-10-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
26 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-11-03 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-28 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-29 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $233.18
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d -0.6
Value59 · Δ7d +1.6
Sentiment70 · Δ7d -8.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Earnings surprise screen
26Non-qualifying2026-11-03 amc
View setup

Booking has confirmed Q3 earnings and consensus estimates, a reported eight-quarter EPS beat streak, and a visible travel-platform business, but its shares fell roughly 4.3% from Oct 23 to Oct 28 and recent highs-to-closes were weak; no positive estimate revision or revenue upside signal was verified.

Screen as of 2026-10-29. Window 2026-10-29 to 2026-11-04.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03 · AMC.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 26 / non-qualifying.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Marketing expense rose as a share of gross bookings in Q2 while direct room-night mix was roughly unchanged, leaving customer-acquisition efficiency to prove out. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
  • • Q3 guidance assumes travel conditions remain stable despite Middle East disruption, elevated flight prices, reduced capacity on some routes and softer long-haul demand. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
  • • Q3 guidance decelerates from Q2 results and assumes persistent flight-price, capacity and long-haul travel pressure.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-03 · AMC

November 3 Q3 results versus specific guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
+12.2
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.6
Δ21d
+1.6
Sentiment
70
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.0
Δ21d
-21.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 18.2 / Value 58.8 / Sentiment 69.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$158.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$115.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-28
Market Cap
$111.16B
Beta
1.21
Shares Out
751.38M
P/E (TTM)
34.9
P/S (TTM)
6.64
P/FCF (TTM)
24.42
Rev YoY
+8.1%
EPS YoY
+130.8%
Gross Margin
+97.5%
Op Margin
+35.2%
Net Debt
$2.21B
Current Ratio
1.09
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data