BKNG

BookingA

Nasdaq / Consumer Services

Quote time unavailable

Current thesis

Q2 demonstrated resilient platform economics: room nights rose 5%, gross bookings 9%, revenue 8%, adjusted EBITDA 9%, and free cash flow 16%. The higher savings target and substantial repurchase authorization provide additional per-share upside if Q3 demand remains within guidance.

Posture

Constructive

Lead driver

Sentiment

What changed

Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.6.

What can break

Geopolitical conflict and softer long-haul travel could push room-night and gross-booking growth below Q3 guidance.

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $202.00 · Bull $239.00 · Bear $145.00Analysis 2026-09-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.

Data freshness

Prices

Unavailable: Price unavailable

Fundamentals

As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-09-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence

What

Grade A · Constructive

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $239.24

Why

Momentum58 · Δ7d -22.1

Value53 · Δ7d 0.0

Sentiment86 · Δ7d +11.6

So what

Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

• Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

• Geopolitical conflict and softer long-haul travel could push room-night and gross-booking growth below Q3 guidance.
• Google is both a major performance-marketing channel and an increasingly integrated travel-search competitor; the filing does not quantify Booking's exposure. [#REL-a8465b10-1f78-4a4f-be84-d5b198ca6a6a] [#REL-b41afdae-44ad-42ba-9c3d-666c91795b00]
• Q3 guidance implies slower growth than Q2, long-haul demand remains exposed to geopolitical disruption, and higher marketing intensity could pressure incremental margins.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

September dividend and continuing capital returns

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot

Momentum

9% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-22.1

Δ21d

-31.9

Value

28% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

0.0

Δ21d

+1.1

Sentiment

62% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

+11.6

Δ21d

+9.6

Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 57.5 / Value 53.4 / Sentiment 86.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-12. Scenario method

B+

Bull case

30%

Probability

Target price

$239.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$202.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

20%

Probability

Target price

$145.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-08-17

Market Cap

$153.85B

Beta

1.21

Shares Out

751.38M

P/E (TTM)

34.9

P/S (TTM)

6.64

P/FCF (TTM)

24.42

Rev YoY

+8.1%

EPS YoY

+130.8%

Gross Margin

+97.5%

Op Margin

+35.2%

Net Debt

$2.21B

Current Ratio

1.09

As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data