B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BIRK
BirkenstockCNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The official Q3 release shows broad-based growth, accelerating DTC, strong APAC performance, continued own-retail expansion and a raised FY2026 outlook. [#PR-2026-08-13]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +14.6.
What can break
Analyst revisions, consensus surprise data, options skew and short-interest data are unavailable; missing reaction data is not positive evidence.
Momentum
14
Value
57
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $31.00 · Bull $41.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $53.80
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d +3.8
Value57 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +14.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +14.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst revisions, consensus surprise data, options skew and short-interest data are unavailable; missing reaction data is not positive evidence.
- • Execution remains exposed to consumer spending, tariffs, supply-chain disruption, product availability, inventory management, wholesale relationships and debt obligations. [#PR-2026-08-13]
- • Growth is offset by lower reported margins, tariff and product-mix pressure, higher leverage after capital returns, and insider-selling overhang.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-13
Q3 FY2026 results and guidance raise
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
14
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.8
Δ21d
+8.4
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
61
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.6
Δ21d
+6.1
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 13.7 / Value 56.7 / Sentiment 61.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.96B
Beta
-
Shares Out
183.91M
P/E (TTM)
19.1
P/S (TTM)
3.12
P/FCF (TTM)
21.89
Rev YoY
+16.2%
EPS YoY
-10.6%
Gross Margin
+53.0%
Op Margin
+24.5%
Net Debt
$1.19B
Current Ratio
3.78
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data