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BIDU

BaiduB
Nasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 AI-powered business revenue grew 25% year over year to RMB12.5 billion, or half of Baidu General Business revenue. AI Cloud Infra grew 50%; sustained conversion of that growth into cash returns could support a re-rating.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.6.
What can break
Moody's reportedly changed Baidu's rating outlook to negative on September 24 while affirming A3, citing AI investment pressure on cash flow and leverage. Moody's outlook coverage
Momentum
14
Value
51
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $88.00 · Bull $110.00 · Bear $68.00Analysis 2026-09-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $145.19
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d +1.0
Value51 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment70 · Δ7d +4.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Moody's reportedly changed Baidu's rating outlook to negative on September 24 while affirming A3, citing AI investment pressure on cash flow and leverage. Moody's outlook coverage
  • • Q2 capital expenditure of RMB11.39 billion exceeded operating cash flow, producing negative free cash flow of RMB7.95 billion. [#IR-Q2-2026-08-18]
  • • Q2 revenue of RMB31.33 billion and non-GAAP earnings per ADS of RMB7.22 missed the RMB31.95 billion and RMB9.84 consensus figures reported by Investing.com.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-30

Next operating-results test: AI growth versus advertising decline

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
14
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+1.3
Sentiment
70
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.6
Δ21d
+3.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 13.6 / Value 51.1 / Sentiment 69.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$110.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$25.7B
Beta
0.31
Shares Out
276.19M
P/E (TTM)
43.8
P/S (TTM)
2.76
P/FCF (TTM)
27.71
Rev YoY
+1.8%
EPS YoY
-64.8%
Gross Margin
+40.8%
Op Margin
+7.0%
Net Debt
-$2.64B
Current Ratio
2.33
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data