B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BHB
Bar Harbor BanksharesDNYSE American / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The constructive case is operational rather than narrative-driven: Q4 2025 showed a 3.62% net interest margin, 8% annualized commercial loan growth, stable ACL coverage near 0.94%, improving book value per share to $31.88, and management emphasized fee support from wealth management with $3.5 billion of AUM [#8-K-2026-01-22].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.
What can break
Acquisition integration benefits may arrive more slowly than expected, leaving expense and funding drag ahead of revenue synergies.
Momentum
70
Value
48
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $35.00 · Bull $39.00 · Bear $29.00Analysis 2026-04-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $41.00
Why
Momentum70 · Δ7d +3.8
Value48 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +1.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Acquisition integration benefits may arrive more slowly than expected, leaving expense and funding drag ahead of revenue synergies.
- • Commercial real estate or broader credit weakening in Northern New England could pressure reserves from currently benign levels.
- • The cautious case is that the same Q4 release also showed deposits down sequentially, $86.0 million of brokered maturities, and borrowings up to $269.6 million, so margin strength may prove less durable if deposit competition or credit costs worsen.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-23
Dividend continuity versus capital flexibility remains a live board signal
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
70
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.8
Δ21d
+0.6
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
+3.6
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 69.5 / Value 48.0 / Sentiment 52.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$676.18M
Beta
0.64
Shares Out
16.77M
P/E (TTM)
13.6
P/S (TTM)
3.33
P/FCF (TTM)
27.31
Rev YoY
+26.8%
EPS YoY
+128.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+23.3%
Net Debt
$234.69M
Current Ratio
0.04
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data