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BGS

B&G FoodsC
NYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Portfolio changes lifted Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin to 15.8% from 13.7%, and management reaffirmed FY2026 sales, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS ranges. Stabilizing base-business volumes and sustained cash generation could improve the equity case.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.6.
What can break
Continued base-business volume declines could overwhelm pricing, mix and cost savings.
Momentum
18
Value
55
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.20 · Bull $3.50 · Bear $1.50Analysis 2026-10-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $3.60
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d +1.1
Value55 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +2.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Continued base-business volume declines could overwhelm pricing, mix and cost savings.
  • • Higher interest cost and leverage may limit equity upside even if adjusted EBITDA improves.
  • • Q2 reported sales fell 9.7% and base-business sales fell 2.9%; margin gains benefited from portfolio changes and tariff refunds while interest expense increased.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-30

Base-business volume versus margin durability

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
+4.8
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
64
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.6
Δ21d
+3.0
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 18.4 / Value 55.1 / Sentiment 64.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$2.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
40%
Probability
Target price
$1.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$169.05M
Beta
0.51
Shares Out
81.28M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.8
P/S (TTM)
0.18
P/FCF (TTM)
4.79
Rev YoY
-9.7%
EPS YoY
-59.9%
Gross Margin
+21.0%
Op Margin
+11.3%
Net Debt
$1.95B
Current Ratio
1.62
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data