B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BFLY
Butterfly NetworkFNYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that Q1 showed real operating leverage: revenue grew 25%, gross margin expanded to 68.9%, adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed, and management still reaffirmed full-year guidance while outlining additional Home & Community Care, enterprise, and embedded milestones. [#8-K-2026-04-30]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Home & Community Care is still moving toward a first commercial agreement rather than operating at proven scale. [#8-K-2026-04-30]
Momentum
44
Value
36
Sentiment
36
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.50 · Bull $6.80 · Bear $4.10Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.00
Why
Momentum44 · Δ7d -27.7
Value36 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment36 · Δ7d +6.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Home & Community Care is still moving toward a first commercial agreement rather than operating at proven scale. [#8-K-2026-04-30]
- • One customer accounted for more than 10% of Q1 2026 revenue, leaving the quarter's mix vulnerable to partner timing swings. [#10-Q-2026-04-30]
- • The bear case is that much of the better Q1 mix came from higher-margin embedded and software contributions rather than broad-based proof that the core handheld-ultrasound franchise has fully inflected, while concentration and ongoing losses mean any delayed commercialization can quickly pressure sentiment.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · BMO
Q1 beat and full-year reaffirmation improved near-term credibility
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
44
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-27.7
Δ21d
-36.4
Value
36
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
36
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.7
Δ21d
+20.1
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 44.0 / Value 36.3 / Sentiment 36.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.83B
Beta
2.27
Shares Out
271.28M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-21.7
P/S (TTM)
11.05
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-62.77
Rev YoY
+39.5%
EPS YoY
-11.5%
Gross Margin
+52.6%
Op Margin
-60.0%
Net Debt
-$130.09M
Current Ratio
4.06
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data