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BCRX

BioCrystA
Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Sustained ORLADEYO uptake and a successful pediatric launch could support guidance while pipeline readouts add optionality. BioCryst maintained 2026 ORLADEYO guidance and reported positive second-quarter operating profit.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
What can break
BCX17725's small Phase 1 dataset and the later navenibart pivotal readout carry clinical and timing risk. BioCryst earnings exhibit
Momentum
38
Value
70
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.50 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $5.00Analysis 2026-10-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.55
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d -15.5
Value70 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment67 · Δ7d -0.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • BCX17725's small Phase 1 dataset and the later navenibart pivotal readout carry clinical and timing risk. BioCryst earnings exhibit
  • • Licensing revenue boosted second-quarter total revenue; recurring product demand and cash generation require separate monitoring. BioCryst earnings exhibit
  • • Pediatric prescriptions may convert slowly, emerging oral competition may constrain growth, and early BCX17725 or later navenibart data may disappoint.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-04

November 4 results: ORLADEYO uptake and guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
38
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.5
Δ21d
+6.8
Value
70
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
67
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-12.6
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 37.7 / Value 70.2 / Sentiment 67.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.95B
Beta
0.83
Shares Out
255.54M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
6.1
P/S (TTM)
2.60
P/FCF (TTM)
47.30
Rev YoY
+33.6%
EPS YoY
+1180.1%
Gross Margin
+97.5%
Op Margin
+40.9%
Net Debt
$202.38M
Current Ratio
2.32
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data