B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BCRX
BioCrystANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
ORLADEYO remains the commercial foundation, with pediatric pellets adding a potential uptake channel; management also cites cash generation, completed navenibart enrollment, and year-end BCX17725 data as pipeline supports. Q2 revenue was reported at $218.3 million and full-year 2026 total-revenue guidance was raised to $690-$715 million.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +33.8.
What can break
BCX17725 is an early clinical program and year-end data could disappoint or be delayed.
Momentum
42
Value
71
Sentiment
100
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.64
Why
Momentum42 · Δ7d -35.0
Value71 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment100 · Δ7d +33.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +33.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • BCX17725 is an early clinical program and year-end data could disappoint or be delayed.
- • HAE competitive pressure may increase; the packet includes an unconfirmed headline about a PHVS trial win.
- • The pediatric launch still lacks proven paid conversion and real-world outcomes, while early-stage BCX17725 and navenibart carry clinical and timing risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-30
ORLADEYO pediatric oral-pellet rollout
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
42
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-35.0
Δ21d
-10.0
Value
71
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+6.0
Sentiment
100
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+33.8
Δ21d
+3.8
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 42.2 / Value 70.7 / Sentiment 100.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.54B
Beta
0.83
Shares Out
255.54M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
7.9
P/S (TTM)
2.60
P/FCF (TTM)
47.30
Rev YoY
+33.6%
EPS YoY
+1180.1%
Gross Margin
+97.5%
Op Margin
+40.9%
Net Debt
$202.38M
Current Ratio
2.32
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data