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BCAL

California BanCorpB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 loan growth, improved nonperforming assets, and the increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.12 provide a constructive historical baseline, subject to confirmation in Q3. [#8-K-2026-07-27] SEC earnings exhibit
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
Deposit competition, higher deposit costs, and renewed credit losses could offset loan growth. SEC earnings exhibit
Momentum
68
Value
61
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.50 · Bull $25.50 · Bear $18.50Analysis 2026-10-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $24.75
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d -5.6
Value61 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -3.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Deposit competition, higher deposit costs, and renewed credit losses could offset loan growth. SEC earnings exhibit
  • • Q2 net interest margin included purchase-accounting accretion and benefits from resolved nonaccrual loans; extrapolating it could overstate recurring earnings. SEC earnings exhibit
  • • Q2 margin benefited partly from nonaccrual-loan resolutions and purchase-accounting accretion, which may not recur at the same rate.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27

Verify the third-quarter earnings release

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
68
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.6
Δ21d
-7.7
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.8
Δ21d
-11.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 68.3 / Value 60.5 / Sentiment 57.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$25.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$22.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$706.35M
Beta
0.28
Shares Out
32.15M
P/E (TTM)
9.9
P/S (TTM)
2.65
P/FCF (TTM)
10.31
Rev YoY
-2.4%
EPS YoY
+2.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+36.9%
Net Debt
$755K
Current Ratio
0.13
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data