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AZZ

AZZA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary-source evidence improved on July 8-9, 2026: AZZ posted record segment sales, raised full-year guidance, kept net leverage at 1.4x, and described capacity-led growth plus M&A optionality [#SEC-8K-2026-07-08] [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2027Q1].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
What can break
FY2027 capex is expected at roughly $80-$100 million, so execution on ramp projects and working capital remains important despite the low 1.4x leverage [#SEC-8K-2026-07-08].
Momentum
44
Value
61
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $154.00 · Bull $168.00 · Bear $132.00Analysis 2026-07-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $164.00
Why
Momentum44 · Δ7d +24.5
Value61 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d -0.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • FY2027 capex is expected at roughly $80-$100 million, so execution on ramp projects and working capital remains important despite the low 1.4x leverage [#SEC-8K-2026-07-08].
  • • FY2027 guidance explicitly excludes M&A activity and federal regulatory changes, limiting how much of the upside can be underwritten today [#SEC-8K-2026-07-08].
  • • The quarter was not uniformly clean: Precoat growth was modest, some end markets were down on volume, and Metal Coatings margin faced a tougher comparison, so the stronger guide still needs confirmation over the next two quarters [#SEC-8K-2026-07-08].

Catalyst clock

2026-07-08

Q1 FY2027 beat-and-raise reset the near-term narrative

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
44
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+24.5
Δ21d
-7.8
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-3.7
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
+3.6
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 44.3 / Value 60.5 / Sentiment 75.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$168.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$154.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$132.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.61B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
30.05M
P/E (TTM)
10.7
P/S (TTM)
2.09
P/FCF (TTM)
8.65
Rev YoY
+6.3%
EPS YoY
-69.5%
Gross Margin
+24.0%
Op Margin
+16.2%
Net Debt
$537.68M
Current Ratio
1.92
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data