B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AZZ
AZZBNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The adjusted EPS and revenue beat, 150-basis-point year-over-year increase in consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin, and raised FY2027 outlook support an improved operating case. Metal Coatings benefited from higher steel-processing volume, while the Washington plant contributed to Precoat sales.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
What can break
FY2027 guidance assumes a Washington plant contribution and $100–$140 million of debt reduction; execution remains unproven. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-13]
Momentum
62
Value
61
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $135.00 · Bull $155.00 · Bear $105.00Analysis 2026-10-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $162.30
Why
Momentum62 · Δ7d -13.1
Value61 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -2.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FY2027 guidance assumes a Washington plant contribution and $100–$140 million of debt reduction; execution remains unproven. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-13]
- • GAAP EPS fell year over year because the prior-year comparison included a substantial AVAIL joint-venture gain; adjusted and GAAP earnings tell different stories. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-13]
- • The post-print price decline challenges the prior cautiously positive thesis despite stronger reported results.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-30
Post-earnings reassessment
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
62
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.1
Δ21d
-14.2
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.4
Δ21d
-8.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 62.4 / Value 61.0 / Sentiment 55.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$135.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.96B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
29.92M
P/E (TTM)
10.7
P/S (TTM)
2.09
P/FCF (TTM)
8.65
Rev YoY
+6.3%
EPS YoY
-69.5%
Gross Margin
+24.0%
Op Margin
+16.2%
Net Debt
$537.68M
Current Ratio
1.92
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data