B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5,577.31
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
AZO
AutoZoneBNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case assumes sustained DIY strength, modest margin expansion from supply-chain normalization, and steady same-store sales leading to ~+30% price appreciation from the anchor over ~6-12 months.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
E-commerce/price competition compressing margins and market share
Momentum
40
Value
52
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4,290.24 · Bull $5,577.31 · Bear $3,003.17Analysis 2025-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $3,952.82
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d +2.0
Value52 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • E-commerce/price competition compressing margins and market share
- • Inventory or supply-chain disruption increasing costs
- • Bear case assumes accelerating online price competition or discretionary-spend weakness causing multi-quarter margin compression and share loss, driving ~-30% downside from the anchor within 6-12 months.
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Quarterly earnings release (Q3/FY2025)
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
40
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+2.0
Δ21d
+18.9
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.6
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 40.2 / Value 52.3 / Sentiment 75.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4,290.24
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3,003.17
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$49.29B
Beta
0.41
Shares Out
16.33M
P/E (TTM)
22.8
P/S (TTM)
2.81
P/FCF (TTM)
29.19
Rev YoY
+8.4%
EPS YoY
+7.7%
Gross Margin
+51.8%
Op Margin
+18.0%
Net Debt
$12.29B
Current Ratio
0.89
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data