B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$42.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AXTA
Axalta CoatingANYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 showed strong operational conversion: record Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Diluted EPS, improved free cash flow, and the lowest reported net leverage in company history. Refinish growth and positive price/mix support the case for continued earnings improvement [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
AkzoNobel closing, integration, synergy realization, and leverage outcomes remain uncertain.
Momentum
76
Value
62
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $38.00 · Bull $42.50 · Bear $30.50Analysis 2026-08-19; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $39.00
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d +29.9
Value62 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -3.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AkzoNobel closing, integration, synergy realization, and leverage outcomes remain uncertain.
- • North American volume weakness and unfavorable mix could offset price, currency, and acquisition benefits.
- • Reported net income and diluted EPS declined year over year because of merger and acquisition costs.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · BMO
Q2 margin and cash-flow follow-through
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
76
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+29.9
Δ21d
+43.1
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
65
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.7
Δ21d
-16.7
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 76.1 / Value 61.6 / Sentiment 64.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-19. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$7.39B
Beta
1.29
Shares Out
214.02M
P/E (TTM)
15.9
P/S (TTM)
1.37
P/FCF (TTM)
20.81
Rev YoY
+3.1%
EPS YoY
-17.0%
Gross Margin
+32.2%
Op Margin
+14.1%
Net Debt
$2.65B
Current Ratio
1.53
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data