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AXTA

Axalta CoatingB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 showed strong operational conversion: record Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Diluted EPS, improved free cash flow, and the lowest reported net leverage in company history. Refinish growth and positive price/mix support the case for continued earnings improvement [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.
What can break
AkzoNobel closing, integration, synergy realization, and leverage outcomes remain uncertain.
Momentum
52
Value
63
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $38.00 · Bull $42.50 · Bear $30.50Analysis 2026-08-19; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $38.79
Why
Momentum52 · Δ7d -4.2
Value63 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +4.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AkzoNobel closing, integration, synergy realization, and leverage outcomes remain uncertain.
  • • North American volume weakness and unfavorable mix could offset price, currency, and acquisition benefits.
  • • Reported net income and diluted EPS declined year over year because of merger and acquisition costs.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

Q2 margin and cash-flow follow-through

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
52
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.2
Δ21d
-27.5
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.8
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.8
Δ21d
-7.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 51.9 / Value 62.5 / Sentiment 69.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-19. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$42.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.73B
Beta
1.29
Shares Out
214.02M
P/E (TTM)
15.9
P/S (TTM)
1.37
P/FCF (TTM)
20.81
Rev YoY
+3.1%
EPS YoY
-17.0%
Gross Margin
+32.2%
Op Margin
+14.1%
Net Debt
$2.65B
Current Ratio
1.53
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data