B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AXSM
Axsome TherapeuticsCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull read is that Axsome is now showing a rare mix for mid-cap biopharma: strong commercial growth, a fresh label expansion for AUVELITY, and management’s statement that current cash should fund operations into cash-flow positivity. The June 2026 Alzheimer’s agitation launch is the key operating lever if investors keep rewarding execution over near-term losses.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.4.
What can break
AUVELITY prescriptions were up 35% year over year but were described as consistent with 4Q25, which could imply a flatter near-term volume cadence until the new indication contributes.
Momentum
15
Value
41
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $224.00 · Bull $245.00 · Bear $185.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $283.25
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d +5.6
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +3.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AUVELITY prescriptions were up 35% year over year but were described as consistent with 4Q25, which could imply a flatter near-term volume cadence until the new indication contributes.
- • Biopharma pipeline value remains sensitive to regulatory timing and execution; the AXS-12 NDA filing is positive, but review timing and downstream milestones were not yet detailed in the packet.
- • The bear read is that operating expense growth accelerated sharply ahead of the launch, net loss remained sizable, cash declined sequentially, and AUVELITY prescription volume was described as consistent with 4Q25 rather than accelerating into the quarter.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-04
AXS-12 NDA submission adds a regulatory checkpoint, but timing beyond filing remains undetailed
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
15
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.6
Δ21d
-8.7
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
+7.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 15.0 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 69.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$224.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.33B
Beta
0.40
Shares Out
52.38M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-58.7
P/S (TTM)
15.40
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-154.30
Rev YoY
+45.5%
EPS YoY
+2.1%
Gross Margin
+92.0%
Op Margin
-23.5%
Net Debt
-$104.82M
Current Ratio
1.43
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data