B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$240.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AXSM
Axsome TherapeuticsCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Second-quarter net product revenue grew 46% year over year to $218.4 million, while early AUVELITY launch prescription indicators were encouraging. Sustained uptake could support commercial leverage, with AXS-12 adding a separate regulatory opportunity.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
AUVELITY Alzheimer's-agitation launch prescriptions may not translate into durable, reimbursed sales; payer access and execution remain important. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
Momentum
11
Value
41
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $180.00 · Bull $240.00 · Bear $100.00Analysis 2026-10-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $280.33
Why
Momentum11 · Δ7d -2.1
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment77 · Δ7d +10.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bearish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-25.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AUVELITY Alzheimer's-agitation launch prescriptions may not translate into durable, reimbursed sales; payer access and execution remain important. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
- • AXS-12 faces FDA decision risk, and initiated solriamfetol ADHD Phase 3 trials carry clinical timing and outcome risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
- • The launch indicator is early and not proof of durable revenue.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02
November 2 results test AUVELITY launch uptake
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
11
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.1
Δ21d
-16.5
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
77
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.9
Δ21d
-15.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 11.3 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 77.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$180.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$7.6B
Beta
0.40
Shares Out
52.38M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-39.4
P/S (TTM)
15.40
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-103.48
Rev YoY
+45.5%
EPS YoY
+2.1%
Gross Margin
+92.0%
Op Margin
-23.5%
Net Debt
-$104.82M
Current Ratio
1.43
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data