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AXON

Axon EnterpriseF
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Execution and international SaaS scaling push ARR growth above expectations while margins expand; market rewards higher multiple on recurring revenues.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Margin pressure from hardware-to-software transition
Momentum
79
Value
44
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $100.00 · Bull $125.00 · Bear $75.00Analysis 2025-10-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-10-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $725.00
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d +2.5
Value44 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Margin pressure from hardware-to-software transition
  • • Municipal budget weakness
  • • Procurement headwinds, regulatory/legal issues, or slower conversion to higher-margin cloud services compress revenue growth and force multiple contraction.

Catalyst clock

No dated catalyst is available.

Regulatory or litigation headlines on use-of-force tech [#News-legal]

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
79
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
-5.2
Value
44
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.3
Sentiment
0
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 79.3 / Value 44.0 / Sentiment 0.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-10-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$75.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$49.09B
Beta
1.48
Shares Out
81.24M
P/E (TTM)
187.5
P/S (TTM)
18.24
P/FCF (TTM)
321.67
Rev YoY
+35.3%
EPS YoY
-19.0%
Gross Margin
+59.4%
Op Margin
+1.1%
Net Debt
$163.69M
Current Ratio
2.15
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data