B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$108.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AX
Axos FinancialBNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bullish read is that Axos still produced double-digit year-over-year growth in net interest income, net income, EPS, loans, deposits, and book value, while management framed reserve pressure as partly tied to one C&I credit and growth rather than a broad real-estate credit break; the pending Jenius and Capital One deposit acquisitions could also improve funding flexibility if closed and integrated smoothly.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
What can break
FHLB advances increased to about $1.805 billion at March 31, 2026 from $60 million at June 30, 2025, raising sensitivity to funding mix and wholesale funding dependence.
Momentum
33
Value
61
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $96.00 · Bull $108.00 · Bear $74.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $117.71
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d +0.8
Value61 · Δ7d +0.8
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -3.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FHLB advances increased to about $1.805 billion at March 31, 2026 from $60 million at June 30, 2025, raising sensitivity to funding mix and wholesale funding dependence.
- • Net interest margin was 4.57% versus 4.78% a year earlier, so margin resilience still needs to be proven as the funding base is repositioned.
- • The bearish read is that adjusted EPS of $1.90 missed the Zacks consensus estimate of $2.13, provision expense jumped to $41.0 million, FHLB advances rose materially, and reported non-interest income benefited from a $22.0 million favorable legal settlement, leaving the quarter less clean than the headline GAAP EPS growth suggests.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · AMC
Post-earnings reset after reserve-heavy quarter
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
33
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+7.8
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+1.9
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.5
Δ21d
-13.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 32.7 / Value 61.5 / Sentiment 55.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$96.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$74.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$5.22B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
56.86M
P/E (TTM)
11.8
P/S (TTM)
4.02
P/FCF (TTM)
10.30
Rev YoY
+16.0%
EPS YoY
+12.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+29.5%
Net Debt
$16.69M
Current Ratio
0.37
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data