B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$108.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AX
Axos FinancialCNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bullish read is that Axos still produced double-digit year-over-year growth in net interest income, net income, EPS, loans, deposits, and book value, while management framed reserve pressure as partly tied to one C&I credit and growth rather than a broad real-estate credit break; the pending Jenius and Capital One deposit acquisitions could also improve funding flexibility if closed and integrated smoothly.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.4.
What can break
FHLB advances increased to about $1.805 billion at March 31, 2026 from $60 million at June 30, 2025, raising sensitivity to funding mix and wholesale funding dependence.
Momentum
42
Value
59
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $96.00 · Bull $108.00 · Bear $74.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $119.14
Why
Momentum42 · Δ7d -8.9
Value59 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +3.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FHLB advances increased to about $1.805 billion at March 31, 2026 from $60 million at June 30, 2025, raising sensitivity to funding mix and wholesale funding dependence.
- • Net interest margin was 4.57% versus 4.78% a year earlier, so margin resilience still needs to be proven as the funding base is repositioned.
- • The bearish read is that adjusted EPS of $1.90 missed the Zacks consensus estimate of $2.13, provision expense jumped to $41.0 million, FHLB advances rose materially, and reported non-interest income benefited from a $22.0 million favorable legal settlement, leaving the quarter less clean than the headline GAAP EPS growth suggests.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Post-earnings reset after reserve-heavy quarter
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
42
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.9
Δ21d
-16.5
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
+5.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 41.9 / Value 58.6 / Sentiment 60.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$96.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$74.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.65B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
56.88M
P/E (TTM)
11.8
P/S (TTM)
4.02
P/FCF (TTM)
10.30
Rev YoY
+16.0%
EPS YoY
+12.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+29.5%
Net Debt
$16.69M
Current Ratio
0.37
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data