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AWK

American Water WorksD
NYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 beat, reaffirmed guidance, Pennsylvania rate implementation, acquisition contributions, and merger progress support a measured upside case.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
2026 adjusted EPS guidance excludes merger transaction costs, weather impacts, and certain interest-income effects.
Momentum
52
Value
42
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $141.00 · Bull $155.00 · Bear $120.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $141.30
Why
Momentum52 · Δ7d -3.8
Value42 · Δ7d -0.8
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -8.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2026 adjusted EPS guidance excludes merger transaction costs, weather impacts, and certain interest-income effects.
  • • Acquisition and capital-investment growth depends on regulatory recovery and operating execution.
  • • Guidance was reaffirmed rather than raised; leverage and interest costs are rising, while merger approvals, integration, transaction costs, and regulatory execution remain uncertain.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · AMC

Q2 beat with guidance reaffirmed

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
52
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.8
Δ21d
-15.6
Value
42
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-1.6
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.1
Δ21d
-20.4
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 51.8 / Value 41.9 / Sentiment 51.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$141.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$28.37B
Beta
0.77
Shares Out
198.73M
P/E (TTM)
22.3
P/S (TTM)
4.90
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-16.86
Rev YoY
+6.2%
EPS YoY
+8.4%
Gross Margin
+43.8%
Op Margin
+37.1%
Net Debt
$15.75B
Current Ratio
0.52
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data