B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$10.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AVTR
AvantorFNYSE / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best bull read is that Q1 reset expectations low enough for a modest beat/reaffirm quarter to matter: management cited improved Bioscience execution, VWR stabilization, and early benefit from the Revival program, while the packet's median analyst target of $10.6333 sits above the $7.99 anchor price.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Free cash flow fell to $25.2 million from $82.1 million in the prior-year quarter, and cash and cash equivalents declined to $279.3 million from $365.4 million at December 31, 2025. [#10-Q-2026-04-29]
Momentum
89
Value
63
Sentiment
12
Setup hits (3d)
4 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $8.80 · Bull $10.20 · Bear $6.60Analysis 2026-05-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $14.66
Why
Momentum89 · Δ7d -3.2
Value63 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment12 · Δ7d -2.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Free cash flow fell to $25.2 million from $82.1 million in the prior-year quarter, and cash and cash equivalents declined to $279.3 million from $365.4 million at December 31, 2025. [#10-Q-2026-04-29]
- • Gross debt remained high at $3.836 billion at March 31, 2026, so the turnaround still sits alongside meaningful balance-sheet execution demands. [#10-Q-2026-04-29]
- • The bear read is that this was still a flat-revenue, organically down quarter with lower net income, lower adjusted segment profit, and weaker free cash flow, so the stock may need repeated execution proof before investors award a higher multiple.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
Post-Q1 rerating window after beat framing and FY2026 guidance reaffirmation
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
89
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.2
Δ21d
-8.9
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
12
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.3
Δ21d
-8.2
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 88.7 / Value 63.3 / Sentiment 12.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-05. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$9.13B
Beta
0.94
Shares Out
676.36M
P/E (TTM)
12.5
P/S (TTM)
1.23
P/FCF (TTM)
15.48
Rev YoY
+0.5%
EPS YoY
-40.7%
Gross Margin
+30.7%
Op Margin
+8.2%
Net Debt
$3.77B
Current Ratio
1.78
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data