B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AVO
Mission ProduceDNasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source guidance argues Q2 was distorted by temporary April size mismatches, delayed California and Peru harvests, and deal costs; if Q3 EBITDA lands in the guided $28 million-$32 million range and Q4 shows initial Calavo synergies, the stock could re-rate toward the still-elevated external target backdrop despite the weak print [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Cash fell to $33.0 million at April 30, 2026 from $64.8 million at October 31, 2025, while the Calavo deal added approximately $350 million of term-loan indebtedness, leaving less room for integration miscues [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08].
Momentum
64
Value
54
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $11.20 · Bull $15.50 · Bear $8.00Analysis 2026-06-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $16.50
Why
Momentum64 · Δ7d +13.3
Value54 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment44 · Δ7d +4.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cash fell to $33.0 million at April 30, 2026 from $64.8 million at October 31, 2025, while the Calavo deal added approximately $350 million of term-loan indebtedness, leaving less room for integration miscues [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08].
- • International Farming profitability weakened on higher per-unit mango costs and lower blueberry packing/storage volume, so the non-avocado pieces did not offset core margin pressure [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08].
- • The post-earnings read is still cautious because revenue fell 24%, net income swung to a loss, adjusted EBITDA dropped to $7.1 million, and management is asking investors to underwrite a second-half recovery plus integration execution at the same time [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08].
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
Q3 margin recovery is the first post-print proof point
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
64
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.3
Δ21d
+0.8
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.9
Sentiment
44
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.7
Δ21d
+3.8
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 63.8 / Value 54.4 / Sentiment 44.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$11.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.14B
Beta
0.62
Shares Out
88.32M
P/E (TTM)
21.9
P/S (TTM)
0.59
P/FCF (TTM)
21.99
Rev YoY
-23.5%
EPS YoY
-332.7%
Gross Margin
+12.2%
Op Margin
+4.8%
Net Debt
$134.4M
Current Ratio
1.91
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data