B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AVNW
Aviat NetworksBNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The FY2027 guide implies meaningful EBITDA expansion, while backlog is up 14%, book-to-bill remains above 1, North America is growing strongly, and management disclosed a sizable customer order. One reported post-print target revision raised Roth Capital's target from $34 to $38, but broad analyst-revision evidence is unavailable [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/AVNW/price-targets).
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
What can break
Acquisition integration, supply-chain constraints, customer acceptance, tariffs, and financial-covenant compliance remain disclosed operating risks [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27].
Momentum
46
Value
63
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.00 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $16.00Analysis 2026-08-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $32.75
Why
Momentum46 · Δ7d -18.0
Value63 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment69 · Δ7d -0.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Acquisition integration, supply-chain constraints, customer acceptance, tariffs, and financial-covenant compliance remain disclosed operating risks [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27].
- • Customer, product, and geographic mix can pressure margins and reported earnings.
- • The Q4 earnings profile weakened: GAAP loss, lower non-GAAP EPS and Adjusted EBITDA, and a 340-basis-point gross-margin decline.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-29
FY2027 guidance and backlog conversion
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
46
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-18.0
Δ21d
+6.0
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-4.5
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
+20.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 45.6 / Value 62.7 / Sentiment 69.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-31. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-27
Market Cap
$285.19M
Beta
0.95
Shares Out
12.94M
P/E (TTM)
21.6
P/S (TTM)
0.63
P/FCF (TTM)
24.01
Rev YoY
-11.2%
EPS YoY
-158.2%
Gross Margin
+32.0%
Op Margin
+5.8%
Net Debt
$31.23M
Current Ratio
1.99
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data