B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AVBP
ArriVent BioPharmaFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
ARR-217 data could establish a credible second value driver, while the separate ALPACCA PACC-mutant program and early ARR-002 trial preserve portfolio optionality. The October 19 PACC Phase 1b findings support further testing, not approval-level efficacy.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
ALPACCA Phase 3 enrollment and eventual efficacy remain uncertain despite encouraging, nonrandomized PACC Phase 1b findings. [#8-K-2026-10-19]
Momentum
4
Value
41
Sentiment
28
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $21.00 · Bull $32.00 · Bear $12.00Analysis 2026-10-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $22.27
Why
Momentum4 · Δ7d -0.5
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment28 · Δ7d +10.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • ALPACCA Phase 3 enrollment and eventual efficacy remain uncertain despite encouraging, nonrandomized PACC Phase 1b findings. [#8-K-2026-10-19]
- • ARR-002 has only recently entered U.S. Phase 1 testing; tolerability and clinical activity are unproven. [#PR-2026-10-12]
- • The pivotal FURVENT primary-endpoint miss materially weakens the lead program's first-line exon 20 insertion case.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-26
ARR-217 Phase 1 data interpretation
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
4
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-53.7
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
28
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.0
Δ21d
-6.4
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 3.9 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 27.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-25. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.04B
Beta
-
Shares Out
49.31M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.9
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-6.29
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
+16.8%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$312.81M
Current Ratio
14.16
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data