B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AUTL
Autolus TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best supported bull argument is that Autolus is now pairing a real commercial base with maintained 2026 AUCATZYL guidance. The 10-K showed $74.3 million of 2025 net product revenue and a U.K.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Commercial concentration risk: AUCATZYL is the only approved product and remains the main revenue driver, with no EU sales anticipated in 2026 per the 10-K [#10-K-2026-03-27].
Momentum
94
Value
41
Sentiment
35
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.60 · Bull $2.40 · Bear $0.80Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $8.42
Why
Momentum94 · Δ7d -
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment35 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Commercial concentration risk: AUCATZYL is the only approved product and remains the main revenue driver, with no EU sales anticipated in 2026 per the 10-K [#10-K-2026-03-27].
- • Financing and runway risk: the 10-K says existing cash and marketable securities were expected to fund operations for at least the next twelve months from the filing date, but it also says additional capital will be needed until significant product revenue is generated [#10-K-2026-03-27].
- • The bear case is that a workforce reduction this soon after launch signals pressure to self-fund commercialization and pipeline work.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-30
Q3 2026 completion of workforce reduction is the nearest execution check
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
94
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
35
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 94.2 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 35.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$606.84M
Beta
1.98
Shares Out
266.16M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2.1
P/S (TTM)
9.68
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.62
Rev YoY
+116.1%
EPS YoY
-19.3%
Gross Margin
+12.9%
Op Margin
-210.5%
Net Debt
$49.37M
Current Ratio
4.85
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data