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AURA

Aura BiosciencesD
Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
CoMpass enrollment is complete, and the company projects that its ocular-oncology-focused operating plan will extend cash runway into 1H 2029, beyond the planned 2H 2027 readout [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.4.
What can break
Aura announced an approximately 20% workforce reduction; estimated realignment cash payments and costs are $2.9 million–$3.2 million, mostly expected in Q3 2026 [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11] [#8-K-2026-08-11].
Momentum
49
Value
41
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6.00 · Bull $10.00 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.60
Why
Momentum49 · Δ7d +0.3
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -3.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Aura announced an approximately 20% workforce reduction; estimated realignment cash payments and costs are $2.9 million–$3.2 million, mostly expected in Q3 2026 [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11] [#8-K-2026-08-11].
  • • The 2H 2027 CoMpass readout is distant and binary; full enrollment does not establish efficacy [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
  • • Value remains concentrated in a future Phase 3 result.

Catalyst clock

2027-03-31

Updates on additional ocular oncology programs

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
49
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+21.6
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.4
Δ21d
-10.9
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 48.6 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 53.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$653.34M
Beta
0.46
Shares Out
103.7M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.6
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.44
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
+3.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$126.86M
Current Ratio
16.82
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data