B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AURA
Aura BiosciencesCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bel-sar could deliver multiple 2026 development updates, complete CoMpass enrollment, and preserve a path to potentially transformative 2H 2027 topline data. The May update also indicated financing support and expected runway into 2H 2028 [#SEC-8K-2026-05-11].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.5.
What can break
2026 NMIBC, choroidal-metastases, and ocular-surface data remain unverified, leaving weak near-term visibility.
Momentum
48
Value
41
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.50 · Bull $12.50 · Bear $4.50Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.60
Why
Momentum48 · Δ7d +4.2
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment70 · Δ7d +7.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 NMIBC, choroidal-metastases, and ocular-surface data remain unverified, leaving weak near-term visibility.
- • A 10% owner reported an open-market sale of approximately 6.9 million shares at $5.64 on May 7, 2026; this is a sentiment risk but not evidence of operating performance [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-11].
- • No confirmed August earnings print or new clinical readout was identified, so the scheduled follow-up does not currently improve forward visibility.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Expanded authorized-share capacity
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
48
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.2
Δ21d
-35.1
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
70
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.5
Δ21d
+15.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 48.3 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 70.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$796.45M
Beta
0.46
Shares Out
103.7M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.4
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-5.41
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
+3.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$126.86M
Current Ratio
16.82
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data