B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AUR
Aurora InnovationFNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Aurora has crossed from technology validation into commercial scaling: it launched freight service in April 2025, reported that its latest software release tripled the driverless network to 10 routes, said capacity is committed through Q3 2026, and outlined a path to more than 200 driverless trucks by the end of 2026 [#PR-2026-02-11]. If the May 6 update and the Q2 no-observer launch checkpoint are met, the market could begin underwriting faster utilization and a clearer path to cash generation.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -14.2.
What can break
Aurora explicitly says it may need additional capital to support development and commercialization at scale, leaving dilution risk live [#10-K-2026-02-11].
Momentum
18
Value
35
Sentiment
41
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.25 · Bull $7.25 · Bear $3.60Analysis 2026-04-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.14
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d +3.4
Value35 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment41 · Δ7d -14.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -14.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Aurora explicitly says it may need additional capital to support development and commercialization at scale, leaving dilution risk live [#10-K-2026-02-11].
- • Commercial revenue is still very small relative to operating costs, so execution missteps can quickly overwhelm the scaling narrative.
- • The bear case is that the business remains economically unproven.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
May 6, 2026 first-quarter business review call
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
-55.8
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
41
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.2
Δ21d
-4.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 18.2 / Value 35.1 / Sentiment 41.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-22. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$5.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$13.97B
Beta
2.48
Shares Out
2B
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-15.7
P/S (TTM)
3861.07
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-18.03
Rev YoY
+100.0%
EPS YoY
+21.3%
Gross Margin
-1560.0%
Op Margin
-19400.0%
Net Debt
-$1.19B
Current Ratio
11.38
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data