B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AUPH
AuriniaANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue increased 19% year over year to $83.2 million, net income reached $37.4 million, and operating cash flow was $52.5 million. LUPKYNIS growth, $443.1 million of cash and investments at June 30, and the Teva settlement support the positive directional prior.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
What can break
Full-year LUPKYNIS sales could miss the reiterated $305 million–$315 million guidance range. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
81
Value
66
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.50 · Bull $22.00 · Bear $12.50Analysis 2026-10-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.17
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d +0.3
Value66 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -4.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Full-year LUPKYNIS sales could miss the reiterated $305 million–$315 million guidance range. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • PRESERVE and aritinercept lack supplied dated efficacy readouts; development progress should not be treated as proven clinical benefit.
- • Aurinia reiterated rather than raised 2026 guidance.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29
2026 LUPKYNIS sales versus guidance
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
81
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+10.0
Value
66
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.6
Δ21d
-9.7
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 80.7 / Value 66.5 / Sentiment 63.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-25. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$2.3B
Beta
1.52
Shares Out
133.05M
P/E (TTM)
27.3
P/S (TTM)
7.59
P/FCF (TTM)
16.83
Rev YoY
+18.9%
EPS YoY
+79.2%
Gross Margin
+90.4%
Op Margin
+45.2%
Net Debt
-$323.19M
Current Ratio
5.42
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data