B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ATRA
Atara BiotherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
A credible FDA-aligned path toward tab-cel resubmission, additional pivotal-study follow-up and extended runway could re-rate the stock materially from its $7.71 anchor price. The upside case remains event-driven and execution-dependent.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.6.
What can break
Cash-runway guidance depends on operating efficiencies and ATM proceeds, with dilution risk if additional capital is required.
Momentum
95
Value
44
Sentiment
29
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6.70 · Bull $9.50 · Bear $4.50Analysis 2026-07-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.67
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d -0.9
Value44 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment29 · Δ7d -8.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cash-runway guidance depends on operating efficiencies and ATM proceeds, with dilution risk if additional capital is required.
- • FDA agreement on a possible resubmission framework does not ensure acceptance, approval or a defined filing timeline.
- • The resubmission path is only potential, recurring revenue is minimal, and the company remains dependent on regulatory progress, cost controls and financing capacity.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-26
Potential tab-cel BLA resubmission path
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
95
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-
Value
44
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-15.6
Sentiment
29
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.6
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 95.2 / Value 44.3 / Sentiment 28.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$6.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$83.92M
Beta
-0.41
Shares Out
10.04M
P/E (TTM)
7.7
P/S (TTM)
0.80
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.31
Rev YoY
-96.4%
EPS YoY
-265.9%
Gross Margin
+91.4%
Op Margin
-238.7%
Net Debt
$44.32M
Current Ratio
1.98
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data