B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ATEC
AlphatecDNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 growth in cases and surgeon users, positive free cash flow, and higher adjusted EBITDA guidance show improving scale economics [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]. CEO Patrick Miles's September open-market purchase is an alignment signal, not proof of future results [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-10].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
ATEC reported a $26 million GAAP net loss; adjusted EBITDA excludes items and should not be treated as GAAP profitability [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Momentum
72
Value
47
Sentiment
39
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $13.50 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-09-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $15.79
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d -5.5
Value47 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment39 · Δ7d -4.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • ATEC reported a $26 million GAAP net loss; adjusted EBITDA excludes items and should not be treated as GAAP profitability [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
- • EOS Insight pull-through lacks a quantified, independently confirmed forward adoption timetable in the supplied evidence.
- • Q2 GAAP net loss was $26 million despite $36 million of adjusted EBITDA [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · AMC
Next results test surgeon adoption and case economics
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
72
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-5.5
Δ21d
-3.3
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
39
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.7
Δ21d
-18.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 71.8 / Value 47.4 / Sentiment 39.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.72B
Beta
1.02
Shares Out
154.45M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-11.6
P/S (TTM)
4.33
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
690.06
Rev YoY
+15.1%
EPS YoY
-40.0%
Gross Margin
+61.4%
Op Margin
-4.8%
Net Debt
$435.29M
Current Ratio
1.89
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data