B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1,579.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
ASML
ASMLCNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Continued strong EUV orders, limited regulatory disruptions, and accelerating node transitions drive revenue and margin upside; market rewards ASML's de‑facto oligopoly in advanced lithography.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Customer concentration and order-timing risk
Momentum
71
Value
52
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1,379.72 · Bull $1,579.00 · Bear $1,100.00Analysis 2026-01-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $2,382.54
Why
Momentum71 · Δ7d -1.1
Value52 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment49 · Δ7d +4.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Customer concentration and order-timing risk
- • Export controls reducing addressable markets
- • Regulatory restrictions, a cyclical cutback in customer capex, or production bottlenecks materially slow orders and compress valuation toward downside targets.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-18
Regulatory / export-control developments
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
71
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
-6.9
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.9
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.6
Δ21d
+11.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 70.6 / Value 51.5 / Sentiment 48.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$1,379.72
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$1,100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$600.82B
Beta
1.88
Shares Out
385.42M
P/E (TTM)
43.3
P/S (TTM)
12.69
P/FCF (TTM)
63.89
Rev YoY
+24.4%
EPS YoY
+31.9%
Gross Margin
+52.7%
Op Margin
+35.4%
Net Debt
-$10.19B
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data