B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1,579.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
ASML
ASMLDNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Continued strong EUV orders, limited regulatory disruptions, and accelerating node transitions drive revenue and margin upside; market rewards ASML's de‑facto oligopoly in advanced lithography.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Customer concentration and order-timing risk
Momentum
83
Value
53
Sentiment
41
Setup hits (3d)
7 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $1,379.72 · Bull $1,579.00 · Bear $1,100.00Analysis 2026-01-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $2,345.02
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +32.4
Value53 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment41 · Δ7d -0.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Customer concentration and order-timing risk
- • Export controls reducing addressable markets
- • Regulatory restrictions, a cyclical cutback in customer capex, or production bottlenecks materially slow orders and compress valuation toward downside targets.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-18
Regulatory / export-control developments
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
83
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+32.4
Δ21d
+17.5
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
41
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
+1.6
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 83.2 / Value 53.3 / Sentiment 41.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$1,379.72
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$1,100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$717.08B
Beta
1.88
Shares Out
385.42M
P/E (TTM)
43.3
P/S (TTM)
12.69
P/FCF (TTM)
63.89
Rev YoY
+24.4%
EPS YoY
+31.9%
Gross Margin
+52.7%
Op Margin
+35.4%
Net Debt
-$10.19B
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data