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ASH

AshlandA
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Broad-based sales and volume growth, healthy operating cash flow, net leverage back within the long-term target range, and improving plant execution could drive a gradual earnings recovery.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.1.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA declined 4% year over year despite sales and volume growth.
Momentum
81
Value
58
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $80.00 · Bull $89.70 · Bear $68.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $80.36
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d -4.3
Value58 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -3.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted EBITDA declined 4% year over year despite sales and volume growth.
  • • Hopewell productivity and broader plant-reliability improvements may take longer than expected.
  • • Adjusted EBITDA remains below prior-year levels, Hopewell execution is unresolved, and lower adjusted EPS guidance plus limited analyst coverage constrain conviction.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-28

Q3 FY2026 results reaffirmed full-year outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
81
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.3
Δ21d
+4.2
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.1
Δ21d
-14.8
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 80.9 / Value 57.5 / Sentiment 62.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$89.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.34B
Beta
0.42
Shares Out
45.79M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
21.6
P/S (TTM)
1.51
P/FCF (TTM)
11.16
Rev YoY
+7.3%
EPS YoY
-102.2%
Gross Margin
+26.6%
Op Margin
+8.6%
Net Debt
$1.23B
Current Ratio
3.05
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data