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Ardmore ShippingB
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The strongest post-print evidence is internal: Q1 EPS and net income improved sharply year over year, fleet TCE stepped up materially, and the April 29 operating update pointed to even stronger 2Q spot fixtures. The dividend-policy reset also increases direct shareholder cash return if rates stay firm.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
2Q rate strength is only partially fixed, leaving meaningful earnings sensitivity to the remaining open revenue days [#IR-20260429].
Momentum
79
Value
54
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $18.00 · Bull $21.50 · Bear $15.50Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $21.00
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d +7.9
Value54 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +4.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2Q rate strength is only partially fixed, leaving meaningful earnings sensitivity to the remaining open revenue days [#IR-20260429].
  • • A reversal in Middle East or Red Sea dislocations could reduce tanker demand distortions and pressure spot rates.
  • • This remains a low-coverage shipping name with heavy exposure to volatile spot markets, geopolitical routing distortions, and tariff/trade uncertainty.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-12

Q1 earnings reset plus higher capital return

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
79
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.9
Δ21d
+3.3
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+7.1
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.1
Δ21d
+2.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 79.0 / Value 53.9 / Sentiment 66.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$21.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$738.19M
Beta
-0.11
Shares Out
40.85M
P/E (TTM)
13.5
P/S (TTM)
1.39
P/FCF (TTM)
16.97
Rev YoY
+61.3%
EPS YoY
+570.6%
Gross Margin
+35.3%
Op Margin
+28.5%
Net Debt
$82.03M
Current Ratio
5.45
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data