B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ARVN
ArvinasCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The October 7 ARV-102 presentation reported dose-related exploratory oculomotor changes and associated LRRK2 biomarker reductions in 24 Parkinson’s patients. Alongside the planned ARV-393 and ARV-806 readouts, this supports a tentative positive monitoring view—not a demonstrated clinical-efficacy thesis.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.3.
What can break
ARV-102 biomarker and oculomotor findings do not establish clinical efficacy; the Parkinson’s study included 24 patients treated for 28 days. Arvinas ARV-102 release
Momentum
23
Value
53
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.50 · Bull $11.00 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2026-10-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.93
Why
Momentum23 · Δ7d +5.3
Value53 · Δ7d +0.9
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -5.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • ARV-102 biomarker and oculomotor findings do not establish clinical efficacy; the Parkinson’s study included 24 patients treated for 28 days. Arvinas ARV-102 release
- • ARV-393 and ARV-806 remain early-phase programs exposed to efficacy, safety, enrollment and readout-timing risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
- • Arvinas explicitly says the ARV-102 study was not designed to assess clinical efficacy.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
ARV-393 Phase 1 lymphoma data
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
23
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+5.3
Δ21d
+0.3
Value
53
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.3
Δ21d
-25.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 22.7 / Value 52.8 / Sentiment 59.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$477.32M
Beta
1.88
Shares Out
65.39M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-6.4
P/S (TTM)
2.30
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.34
Rev YoY
+1014.7%
EPS YoY
-407.5%
Gross Margin
+95.6%
Op Margin
-4.0%
Net Debt
-$676.3M
Current Ratio
7.91
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data